Sailor Piece Reroll Simulator
Pick a target clan, race, trait, or aura and see the expected attempts, median, and 50 / 75 / 90 / 95 / 99% confidence thresholds to roll it. Useful for deciding whether to spend 50 rerolls chasing a specific Mythical or save them for a broader target.
Set up your reroll target
About these ratesPer-rarity drop rates are community-consensus estimates — Sailor Piece doesn't publish exact numbers. Treat the output as a useful ballpark, not a guarantee. Real runs regularly land in the 5%–95% confidence band shown below.
Chance of rolling any Mythical trait in 100 attempts
63.4%
per-roll chance 1.00%
Attempts needed by confidence
50% chance
69
75% chance
138
90% chance
230
95% chance
299
99% chance
459
Mean (average) attempts to first success: 100
Probability curve
3
3.0%
16
14.9%
36
30.4%
55
42.5%
81
55.7%
107
65.9%
138
75.0%
161
80.2%
189
85.0%
224
89.5%
250
91.9%
289
94.5%
315
95.8%
354
97.1%
393
98.1%
432
98.7%
459
99.0%
497
99.3%
523
99.5%
Each row: "after N attempts, your chance of hitting any Mythical trait is ___%".
How to read the simulator
- Per-roll chance: probability that any single attempt hits your target. Derived from the rarity drop rate and (in specific-entry mode) the number of entries in that rarity pool.
- Chance after N attempts: the cumulative probability — "if I roll N times, what's my chance of having hit the target at least once?"
- Confidence table: inverts the question. "How many attempts do I need to be 90% confident I've hit it?"
- Mean: average attempts across many players. Exactly 1 / p for a geometric distribution. Don't confuse mean with median — the mean is always higher because the long tail of unlucky runs pulls the average up.
Common targets worth simulating
- Any Mythical trait (5 variants in the pool): ~100 expected, ~230 for 90% confidence.
- Celestial (named Secret trait): ~800 expected, ~1,800 for 90%.
- Any Mythical race (5 variants): similar to Mythical trait.
- Any Legendary clan (Voldigoat or Monarch): ~28 expected — rerolling for Monarch specifically doubles to ~56.
Strategies this tool enables
- Reroll budget planning. Before spending your stash, plug your target in and see the 75% confidence number. If you have less than that many rerolls and your target is a narrow specific entry, consider broadening to "any X rarity" or stockpiling more rerolls first.
- Knowing when to cut losses. If you're at 2× the mean with nothing, you're in the unlucky 13% of runs, not necessarily bugged. Keep going until the 90% confidence number before rage-quitting.
- Multi-target stacking. If you're OK with any of 2–3 Mythical outcomes, mentally combine their p values (p_total ≈ p1 + p2 + p3) and run the simulator against that aggregated chance.
Related tools
After you roll the target, drop it into the Build Calculator to project your final stats, or pit it against alternatives in the Comparison tool. Rerolls themselves come from the Codes page — redeeming the weekly bundle usually funds a dozen attempts.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Reroll Simulator estimate attempts?
Each reroll is modelled as an independent Bernoulli trial with a fixed success probability p (derived from the rarity of your target). The number of attempts to first success follows a geometric distribution, so the chance of having hit your target after N attempts is 1 − (1 − p)^N. The simulator inverts that formula to tell you the N needed for 50% / 90% / 95% / 99% confidence.
Where do the per-rarity drop rates come from?
Sailor Piece does not publish exact drop rates. The numbers used here (Mythical ≈1%, Legendary ≈3.5%, Secret ≈0.5% for Clan/Race/Trait reroll pools) are community-consensus estimates derived from large reroll samples shared in the official Discord. Real rates may vary by ±50% — treat the output as a ballpark, not a promise.
Is "specific entry" mode just the rarity rate divided by the count?
Yes. If there are 5 Mythical traits and the Mythical roll rate is 1%, then the chance of specifically rolling Mythical Trait 3 on any one attempt is 1% / 5 = 0.2%. That gives an expected 500 attempts to first-hit. If you don't care which Mythical lands, pick "Any Mythical" instead and the number drops back to an expected 100 attempts.
What about Aura Crates — are they different?
Yes. Aura Crates use a different drop-rate curve that more heavily favours low-rarity rolls, so the simulator ships a separate override for auras. This reflects community reports that Aura Crates rarely drop Legendary / Mythical auras even at high sample counts.
Why does the 99% confidence number look huge?
Because extreme unlucky streaks happen. For a 1% drop chance, reaching 99% confidence requires ~458 attempts — that's the N where only 1 out of 100 players would still be empty-handed. The mean (average) is 100, but any individual run has a long tail. The simulator surfaces the full curve so you can see what counts as "unlucky" vs "catastrophically unlucky".
Does the simulator know about pity or bad-luck protection?
No. Sailor Piece has no confirmed pity system at the moment — every reroll is independent. If the developers introduce pity in a future patch, the model would shift (pity guarantees compress the tail of the distribution). For now, consecutive bad rolls do NOT improve your odds of the next roll hitting.